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A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.06
0.1 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.40%
EV $0.05 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.90%
1,278 openings, odds method
Variance
1506.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,278 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,417 2,231 HUNT_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $0.36 0.56 HUNT_COIN | 32.4% | 67 | 63.9 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Warhawk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $0.34 0.54 HUNT_COIN | 31.2% | 47 | 63.9 | 0.74× |
| Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 40.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 18.5% | 541 | 511.2 | 1.06× |
| Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 623 | 639.0 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerjurfaustas$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Commonxppp67 skins.army$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.20x
Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.06 | 86.40% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.0%Mythical 5.0%mil spec 5.0%consumer 40.0%Common 50.0%best hit —