FireToTheRain
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.81
51.68 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $28.67 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
237.55%
36 openings, odds method
Variance
28.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 36 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 200 | $2,203 3,470 HUNT_COIN | 38.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $736 1,159 HUNT_COIN | 25.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 33.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| Sticker | Friendly Firesticker · high | 93.5% | $0.62 0.97 HUNT_COIN | 2.0% | 32 | 33.7 | 0.95× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN$2,2033,470 HUNT_COIN67.15x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN$2,2033,470 HUNT_COIN67.15x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$32.8151.68 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN5.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $32.81 | 87.37% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.5%restricted 1.0%mil spec 5.0%high 93.5%best hit $2,203 (67.15x)