Best Rifle Box
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.04
3.22 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.86%
EV $1.82 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.39%
125 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $60.34 95.04 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 22 | $12.51 19.71 HUNT_COIN | 31.0% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.24× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 20 | $10.43 16.42 HUNT_COIN | 28.7% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Kami (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF | 10.0% | $1.96 3.08 HUNT_COIN | 10.8% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT_COIN | 9.2% | 30 | 25.0 | 1.20× |
| Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec | 60.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN | 3.8% | 72 | 75.0 | 0.96× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$2.043.22 HUNT_COIN$10.4316.42 HUNT_COIN5.10x
Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecMarius Tutunaru$2.043.22 HUNT_COIN$0.110.18 HUNT_COIN0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.04 | 88.86% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%restricted 4.5%Classified 5.0%#4B69FF 10.0%#8847ff 20.0%milspec 60.0%best hit —