1% Marble
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.76
7.5 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.97%
EV $4.14 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.72%
1,034 openings, odds method
Variance
82.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 222
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1,034 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,034 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $2,028 3,194 HUNT_COIN | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $1,543 2,430 HUNT_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $651 1,025 HUNT_COIN | 4.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 714 | $492 775 HUNT_COIN | 16.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $372 585 HUNT_COIN | 22.4% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $208 328 HUNT_COIN | 12.6% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $160 251 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| Sticker | Fade Lethalsticker · high | 99.0% | $0.83 1.3 HUNT_COIN | 19.7% | 1,023 | 1023.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertHobbi3ten$4.767.5 HUNT_COIN$372585 HUNT_COIN78.05x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.76 | 86.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%high 99.0%best hit $651 (136.7x)