Karrigoat
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.84
2.9 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.35%
EV $1.61 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.29%
545 openings, odds method
Variance
74.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 560 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $160 251 HUNT_COIN | 99.2% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 556 | 554.4 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertTrevor Lett$1.842.9 HUNT_COIN$160251 HUNT_COIN86.67x
★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertViral Hopes$1.842.9 HUNT_COIN$160251 HUNT_COIN86.67x
★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertViral Hopes$1.842.9 HUNT_COIN$160251 HUNT_COIN86.67x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.84 | 87.35% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%consumer 99.0%best hit $160 (86.67x)