Karrigoat2
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.08
6.42 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.65%
EV $3.61 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
32.91%
196 openings, odds method
Variance
46.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 143
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 196 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 1,000 | $550 866 HUNT_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $368 580 HUNT_COIN | 10.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 1,000 | $265 418 HUNT_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $211 332 HUNT_COIN | 11.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $171 270 HUNT_COIN | 9.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $136 214 HUNT_COIN | 11.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 50 | $62.27 98.08 HUNT_COIN | 34.5% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 97.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 193 | 190.1 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradePOSK$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$4.086.42 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.65%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.08 | 88.65% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.1%covert 0.8%restricted 0.1%Restricted 2.0%Consumer Grade 97.0%best hit —