10% for the W
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.90
1.42 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.91%
EV $0.80 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.62%
767 openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 767 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $10.43 16.42 HUNT_COIN | 91.0% | 46 | 53.7 | 0.86× |
| Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $2.01 3.17 HUNT_COIN | 7.5% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.4% | 697 | 690.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.90 | 88.91% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%other 90.0%best hit —