butt plug nightmare
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.37
3.73 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.52%
EV $2.07 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6.17%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
67.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $222 350 HUNT_COIN | 26.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $222 350 HUNT_COIN | 26.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 400 | $193 304 HUNT_COIN | 23.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert | 1 in 400 | $134 211 HUNT_COIN | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Noodlessticker · Rare | 99.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 7.0% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.52%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.37 | 87.52% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.3%Rare 99.0%best hit —