5% Knife Flip
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.05
14.25 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $7.91 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.85%
77 openings, odds method
Variance
16.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 77 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $392 618 HUNT_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 333 | $303 478 HUNT_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 200 | $243 383 HUNT_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $161 254 HUNT_COIN | 20.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $123 193 HUNT_COIN | 15.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High Grade | 95.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 9.8% | 74 | 73.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.05 | 87.40% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.2%covert knife 1.3%#ffd700 0.5%High Grade 95.0%best hit —