blue dreams
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$219.49
346 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $191.78 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.98%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $4,152 6,540 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 200 | $2,623 4,131 HUNT_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $2,014 3,172 HUNT_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $1,389 2,187 HUNT_COIN | 36.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 10.0% | $849 1,338 HUNT_COIN | 44.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon | 83.4% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$219346 HUNT_COIN$1,3892,187 HUNT_COIN6.33x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$219346 HUNT_COIN$1,3892,187 HUNT_COIN6.33x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weaponAlphaKavlak$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$219346 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $219 | 87.38% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.6%covert knife 5.0%sunny 10.0%other 83.4%best hit $1,389 (6.33x)