2% Blue Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.79
12.27 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $6.81 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.65%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
126.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 143
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100,000 | $17.1K 26,979 HUNT_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 11,111 | $4,444 7,000 HUNT_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,500 | $1,249 1,967 HUNT_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 667 | $764 1,203 HUNT_COIN | 16.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $486 766 HUNT_COIN | 35.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 167 | $174 273 HUNT_COIN | 15.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 143 | $153 241 HUNT_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 98.0% | $0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 18 | 17.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.79 | 87.39% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.3%covert knife 0.7%gray 98.0%best hit —