%5 water bomb
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.92
12.47 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.12%
EV $7.06 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.74%
366 openings, odds method
Variance
22.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 366 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 286 | $444 699 HUNT_COIN | 22.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 1 in 154 | $225 354 HUNT_COIN | 20.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $137 216 HUNT_COIN | 19.4% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.55× |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $128 202 HUNT_COIN | 18.2% | 8 | 3.7 | 2.19× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $70.83 112 HUNT_COIN | 10.0% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $34.97 55.07 HUNT_COIN | 5.0% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.64× |
| Sticker | Go Boom (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 95.0% | $0.34 0.54 HUNT_COIN | 4.6% | 345 | 347.7 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Go Boom (Glitter)sticker · remarkableDiabloPhD$7.9212.47 HUNT_COIN$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.12%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.92 | 89.12% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%Legendary 0.7%covert knife 1.0%classified 2.0%industrial 1.0%remarkable 95.0%best hit —