10% Profit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.23
0.37 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
85.98%
EV $0.20 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.92%
1,759 openings, odds method
Variance
19.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,759 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $23.49 36.99 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.71× |
| M4A4 | Tornado (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 1 in 200 | $6.41 10.09 HUNT_COIN | 15.9% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $4.12 6.49 HUNT_COIN | 20.4% | 20 | 17.6 | 1.14× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 1 in 33 | $2.48 3.9 HUNT_COIN | 36.8% | 55 | 52.8 | 1.04× |
| USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 19 | $0.36 0.57 HUNT_COIN | 9.7% | 89 | 95.0 | 0.94× |
| Sticker | OG (Glitter)sticker | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.5% | 685 | 703.6 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 3.1% | 901 | 879.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$23.4936.99 HUNT_COIN99.97x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$23.4936.99 HUNT_COIN99.97x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$23.4936.99 HUNT_COIN99.97x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecTerorizezBabe.$0.230.37 HUNT_COIN$2.483.9 HUNT_COIN10.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.23 | 85.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%industrial 0.5%classified 1.0%milspec 3.0%mil spec 5.4%other 90.0%best hit $23.49 (99.97x)