37% Profit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.22
0.35 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.11%
EV $0.19 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.11%
232 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 232 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9 | 37.0% | $0.50 0.79 HUNT_COIN | 95.9% | 89 | 85.8 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | OG (Glitter)sticker | 63.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 143 | 146.2 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN2.26x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN2.26x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN2.26x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN2.26x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9Szafir skins.army$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN$0.500.79 HUNT_COIN2.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.11%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.22 | 87.11% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#B0C3D9 37.0%other 63.0%best hit —