20% BIG PROFIT

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.52

0.82 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.00%

EV $0.45 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.57%

873 openings, odds method

Variance

14.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86 openings · below min

7 days

71.68%±27.28741 openings

30 days

73.57%±25.13873 openings

since tracking started

73.57%±25.13873 openings

1.0%81.8%162.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	86	81.78%±80.1	—	odds
7d	741	71.68%±27.3	−1.1σ	odds
30d	873	73.57%±25.1	−1.0σ	odds
All	873	73.57%±25.1	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 873 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000,000	$12.8K 20,125 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$326 514 HUNT_COIN	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000,000	$271 427 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000,000	$194 306 HUNT_COIN	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$136 214 HUNT_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$106 167 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 19,608	$54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$41.66 65.62 HUNT_COIN	0.9%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 10,000	$23.49 37 HUNT_COIN	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 143	$11.32 17.83 HUNT_COIN	17.5%	2	6.1	0.33×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 67	$4.69 7.38 HUNT_COIN	15.5%	9	13.1	0.69×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$2.99 4.71 HUNT_COIN	13.2%	22	17.5	1.26×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 20	$1.77 2.78 HUNT_COIN	19.5%	41	43.7	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	10.0%	$0.69 1.09 HUNT_COIN	15.3%	93	87.3	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$0.33 0.52 HUNT_COIN	14.6%	183	174.6	1.05×
Sticker \| Virtus.prosticker	60.8%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	1.7%	523	530.5	0.99×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · UncommonTerorizezBabe.$0.520.82 HUNT_COIN$1.772.78 HUNT_COIN3.39x45m

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$0.520.82 HUNT_COIN$0.330.52 HUNT_COIN0.63x45m

Sticker | Virtus.prosticker$0.520.82 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x45m

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.520.82 HUNT_COIN$1.772.78 HUNT_COIN3.39x45m

Sticker | Virtus.prosticker$0.520.82 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x2h

Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec$0.520.82 HUNT_COIN$0.691.09 HUNT_COIN1.33x2h

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$0.520.82 HUNT_COIN$0.330.52 HUNT_COIN0.63x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.52	87.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.7%uncommon 1.5%Rare 2.0%Uncommon 5.0%Mil Spec 10.0%restricted 20.0%other 60.8%best hit —