3% Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.41
3.8 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.77%
EV $2.09 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.79%
2,491 openings, odds method
Variance
52.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,491 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $338 532 HUNT_COIN | 16.1% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $247 389 HUNT_COIN | 23.6% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $135 213 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $48.33 76.12 HUNT_COIN | 17.3% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 57 | $34.50 54.34 HUNT_COIN | 28.8% | 39 | 43.6 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | Apekssticker | 97.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 2,423 | 2416.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMaltael$2.413.8 HUNT_COIN$338532 HUNT_COIN139.9x
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMaltael$2.413.8 HUNT_COIN$338532 HUNT_COIN139.9x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.41 | 86.77% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%covert 2.9%other 97.0%best hit $338 (139.9x)