giek luck
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.87
9.25 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.68%
EV $5.21 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
192.11%
697 openings, odds method
Variance
222.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 108
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 697 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 5,000 | $5,903 9,297 HUNT_COIN | 22.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 10,000 | $961 1,514 HUNT_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 111 | $233 366 HUNT_COIN | 40.2% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 1,429 | $159 251 HUNT_COIN | 2.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | Counter Logic Gaming (Foil)sticker | 1 in 100 | $111 175 HUNT_COIN | 21.3% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $21.68 34.14 HUNT_COIN | 4.2% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 14 | $3.54 5.58 HUNT_COIN | 4.8% | 50 | 48.8 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $1.40 2.21 HUNT_COIN | 2.7% | 55 | 69.7 | 0.79× |
| Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 577 | 557.6 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$5,9039,297 HUNT_COIN1,005x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CommonDiabloPhD$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$5.879.25 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.68%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.87 | 88.68% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.9%gold 0.0%covert 0.1%other 1.0%classified 1.0%mil spec 7.0%blue 10.0%Common 80.0%best hit $5,903 (1,005x)