case hardened dream

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.88

4.54 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.41%

EV $2.52 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

17.18%

32 openings, sample method

Variance

169.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 500

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

12 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

16.5%17.3%18.0%

Small sample. 32 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	12	17.18%±0.00	—	sample
30d	32	17.18%±0.00	—	sample
All	32	17.18%±0.00	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 1,000	$806 1,269 HUNT_COIN	32.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$715 1,127 HUNT_COIN	28.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$505 795 HUNT_COIN	20.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	99.7%	$0.50 0.78 HUNT_COIN	19.6%	32	31.9	1.00×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.