p250 free profit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.28
3.59 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.69%
EV $2.02 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.95%
84 openings, odds method
Variance
7.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 84 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $29.17 45.95 HUNT_COIN | 72.2% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $2.22 3.49 HUNT_COIN | 27.4% | 23 | 21.0 | 1.10× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 70.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 57 | 58.8 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerSewi #^$2.283.59 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.28 | 88.69% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 30.0%consumer 70.0%best hit —