10% Blaze
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$73.31
115 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.99%
EV $63.77 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.19%
737 openings, odds method
Variance
6.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 737 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 22 | $693 1,091 HUNT_COIN | 48.9% | 37 | 33.2 | 1.12× |
| Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 18 | $554 872 HUNT_COIN | 47.7% | 46 | 40.5 | 1.13× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 1 in 20 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT_COIN | 2.7% | 32 | 36.9 | 0.87× |
| R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $1.89 2.98 HUNT_COIN | 0.6% | 145 | 147.4 | 0.98× |
| Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 65.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 477 | 479.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specHobbi3ten$73.31115 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil specHobbi3ten$73.31115 HUNT_COIN$554872 HUNT_COIN7.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $73.31 | 86.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 4.5%mil spec 70.5%milspec 5.0%blue 20.0%best hit $693 (9.45x)