Sam Degen 2
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.88
23.44 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.35%
EV $13.00 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
124.03%
45 openings, odds method
Variance
16.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 45 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $401 632 HUNT_COIN | 30.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | Zeus (Gold)sticker | 1 in 100 | $401 631 HUNT_COIN | 30.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| SCAR-20 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 100 | $163 256 HUNT_COIN | 12.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $162 255 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | Counter Logic Gaming (Foil)sticker | 1 in 100 | $111 175 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Sticker | StarLadder (Foil)sticker | 95.0% | $0.66 1.04 HUNT_COIN | 4.8% | 43 | 42.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$14.8823.44 HUNT_COIN$401632 HUNT_COIN26.95x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.35%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $14.88 | 87.35% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.0%other 97.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%covert knife 1.0%best hit —