dreams
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.32
0.5 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.72%
EV $0.28 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.31%
254 openings, odds method
Variance
12.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 254 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Purrurists (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 1 in 33 | $6.52 10.27 HUNT_COIN | 68.7% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| Sticker | Seeing Redsticker · Rare | 1 in 14 | $1.11 1.75 HUNT_COIN | 27.3% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 4.0% | 229 | 228.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.72%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.32 | 89.72% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedLegendary 3.0%Rare 7.0%consumer 90.0%best hit —