SkyIsTheLimit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.20
3.47 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.87%
EV $1.98 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
35.94%
645 openings, odds method
Variance
306.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 179
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 645 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 660 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $2,846 4,482 HUNT_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $868 1,367 HUNT_COIN | 21.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $247 389 HUNT_COIN | 62.4% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| Sticker | TV On Miragesticker · high | 99.4% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 658 | 656.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.20 | 89.87% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%extraordinary 0.1%high 99.4%best hit $247 (112.2x)