ez 10%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.57
0.9 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.78%
EV $0.51 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
39.85%
417 openings, odds method
Variance
26.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.78% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (0.00% – 88.76%, 417 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 417 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 5,000 | $86.53 136 HUNT_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $45.83 72.19 HUNT_COIN | 18.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Glock-18 | Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 25 | $8.67 13.66 HUNT_COIN | 68.4% | 8 | 16.7 | 0.48× |
| AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight | 1 in 17 | $0.69 1.09 HUNT_COIN | 7.9% | 30 | 24.1 | 1.24× |
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.3% | 379 | 375.3 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Gradeosany$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.570.9 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.57 | 88.78% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%covert 0.2%mil spec 4.0%blueLight 5.8%Consumer Grade 90.0%best hit —