10% ONLY DIAMONDS
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.98
61.39 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.68%
EV $34.56 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
136.35%
41 openings, odds method
Variance
12.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 41 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $1,080 1,701 HUNT_COIN | 31.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $608 958 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $416 656 HUNT_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $367 577 HUNT_COIN | 21.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $123 194 HUNT_COIN | 17.9% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 37 | 36.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeDiabloPhD$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$1,0801,701 HUNT_COIN27.71x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$608958 HUNT_COIN15.61x
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$123194 HUNT_COIN3.17x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer GradeMacieja$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$38.9861.39 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.68%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $38.98 | 88.68% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 1.0%extraordinary 3.0%covert 6.0%Consumer Grade 90.0%best hit $1,080 (27.71x)