25 profit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.56
2.46 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.20%
EV $1.36 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.22%
93 openings, odds method
Variance
18.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 93 openings and 9.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $193 304 HUNT_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $49.03 77.23 HUNT_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 143 | $11.82 18.62 HUNT_COIN | 6.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 45 | $7.63 12.02 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.96× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 15 | $4.79 7.55 HUNT_COIN | 23.9% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | Unicorn (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 15.3% | $2.43 3.82 HUNT_COIN | 27.2% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | Dragonsticker · Rare | 74.7% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN | 9.1% | 68 | 69.5 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redMarius Tutunaru$1.562.46 HUNT_COIN$4.797.55 HUNT_COIN3.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.20%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.56 | 87.20% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%classified 0.2%restricted 0.7%covert 2.2%red 6.8%Mythical 15.3%Rare 74.7%best hit —