10 profit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.12
8.06 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.34%
EV $4.47 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.74%
1,150 openings, odds method
Variance
55.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,150 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 418 | $770 1,213 HUNT_COIN | 41.2% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.82× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 24 | $30.86 48.61 HUNT_COIN | 28.2% | 49 | 47.0 | 1.04× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 15 | $12.08 19.03 HUNT_COIN | 18.0% | 71 | 76.5 | 0.93× |
| UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 22.0% | $1.37 2.16 HUNT_COIN | 6.8% | 252 | 253.3 | 0.99× |
| Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 67.0% | $0.39 0.62 HUNT_COIN | 5.9% | 773 | 770.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon$5.128.06 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon$5.128.06 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon$5.128.06 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon$5.128.06 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.08x
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMarius Tutunaru$5.128.06 HUNT_COIN$12.0819.03 HUNT_COIN2.36x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon$5.128.06 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon$5.128.06 HUNT_COIN$0.390.62 HUNT_COIN0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.12 | 87.34% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.9%Industrial Grade 4.1%restricted 22.0%other 67.0%best hit $770 (150.5x)