05% red combo
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.81
2.85 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.43%
EV $1.58 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.55%
932 openings, odds method
Variance
338.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 932 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 947 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000 | $1,944 3,062 HUNT_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 5,000 | $1,509 2,377 HUNT_COIN | 19.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $408 643 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 833 | $300 472 HUNT_COIN | 22.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $170 267 HUNT_COIN | 32.2% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 99.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 945 | 942.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covertPOSK$1.812.85 HUNT_COIN$170267 HUNT_COIN93.79x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.81 | 87.43% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 0.0%covert 0.5%other 99.5%best hit $300 (165.8x)