1% blue steel
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.95
4.64 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.47%
EV $2.58 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.91%
601 openings, odds method
Variance
217.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 601 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 616 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 3,333 | $2,179 3,432 HUNT_COIN | 25.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,429 | $467 735 HUNT_COIN | 12.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $313 493 HUNT_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $263 414 HUNT_COIN | 10.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $209 330 HUNT_COIN | 8.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $153 241 HUNT_COIN | 5.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $129 203 HUNT_COIN | 25.1% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 99.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 607 | 609.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covertTrevor Lett$2.954.64 HUNT_COIN$467735 HUNT_COIN158.4x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$2.954.64 HUNT_COIN$153241 HUNT_COIN51.88x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$2.954.64 HUNT_COIN$153241 HUNT_COIN51.88x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.47%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.95 | 87.47% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%covert 0.8%Covert 0.1%covert knife 0.1%consumer 99.0%best hit $467 (158.4x)