10% Knife ez win
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.18
11.31 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.41%
EV $6.28 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.63%
152 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100,000 | $329 518 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 334 | $146 229 HUNT_COIN | 6.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $86.53 136 HUNT_COIN | 6.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 143 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 7.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 29 | $61.77 97.29 HUNT_COIN | 34.4% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.32× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $54.91 86.49 HUNT_COIN | 43.7% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 134 | 136.8 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$7.1811.31 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN7.65x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$7.1811.31 HUNT_COIN$54.9186.49 HUNT_COIN7.65x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.41%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.18 | 87.41% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 4.0%covert 6.0%other 90.0%best hit —