10% ez profit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.62
0.98 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.17%
EV $0.55 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.33%
536 openings, odds method
Variance
19.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 536 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50,000 | $87.30 137 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 500 | $44.44 70 HUNT_COIN | 16.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 44 | $8.70 13.71 HUNT_COIN | 36.5% | 17 | 12.3 | 1.38× |
| USP-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 40 | $8.48 13.35 HUNT_COIN | 38.6% | 17 | 13.4 | 1.27× |
| Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec | 1 in 20 | $0.69 1.09 HUNT_COIN | 6.3% | 32 | 26.8 | 1.19× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.1% | 469 | 482.4 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN$44.4470 HUNT_COIN71.43x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerTerorizezBabe.$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerTerorizezBabe.$0.620.98 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.17%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.62 | 88.17% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%restricted 0.2%industrial 2.3%Mythical 2.5%Mil Spec 5.0%consumer 90.0%best hit $44.44 (71.43x)