Hot rod
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$443.83
699 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.00%
EV $386.13 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.45%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $1,509 2,377 HUNT_COIN | 58.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $444 700 HUNT_COIN | 28.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 12.6% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff | 35.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$444699 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN0.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$444699 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN0.44x
Souvenir MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$444699 HUNT_COIN$194306 HUNT_COIN0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $444 | 87.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 15.0%mil spec 50.0%#4b69ff 35.0%best hit $1,509 (3.40x)