10% Rich Basic
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$17.41
27.42 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $15.22 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.95%
613 openings, odds method
Variance
134.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 286
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 613 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 613 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $5,903 9,297 HUNT_COIN | 38.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 400 | $1,290 2,032 HUNT_COIN | 21.2% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 133 | $486 766 HUNT_COIN | 24.0% | 9 | 4.6 | 1.96× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $24.29 38.26 HUNT_COIN | 16.0% | 51 | 61.3 | 0.83× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 88.9% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 550 | 545.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$17.4127.42 HUNT_COIN$1,2902,032 HUNT_COIN74.11x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertDiabloPhD$17.4127.42 HUNT_COIN$1,2902,032 HUNT_COIN74.11x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$17.4127.42 HUNT_COIN$1,2902,032 HUNT_COIN74.11x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.41 | 87.40% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 10.3%covert knife 0.8%consumer 88.9%best hit $1,290 (74.11x)