A Sticker And A Dream
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.12
1.77 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.76%
EV $1.00 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.44%
49 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 49 openings and 7.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Battle Scarred (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 1 in 50 | $7.49 11.79 HUNT_COIN | 15.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| Sticker | Seeing Red (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 50 | $4.86 7.66 HUNT_COIN | 9.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Sticker | Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare | 1 in 20 | $4.01 6.32 HUNT_COIN | 20.1% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Foil)sticker | 1 in 17 | $1.72 2.71 HUNT_COIN | 10.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| Sticker | Max (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 10.0% | $1.00 1.58 HUNT_COIN | 10.1% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.63× |
| Sticker | Nice Clutch (Holo)sticker · violet | 10.0% | $0.95 1.49 HUNT_COIN | 9.5% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| Sticker | Baby Medusasticker · high | 20.0% | $0.57 0.9 HUNT_COIN | 11.5% | 14 | 9.8 | 1.43× |
| Sticker | Gold Websticker · pink | 20.0% | $0.55 0.87 HUNT_COIN | 11.1% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.82× |
| Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff | 12.5% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN | 1.4% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.14× |
| Sticker | skullz (Glitter)sticker | 12.5% | $0.10 0.16 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.76%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.12 | 88.76% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 2.0%exotic 2.0%Rare 5.0%other 18.5%remarkable 10.0%violet 10.0%high 20.0%pink 20.0%#4b69ff 12.5%best hit —