10% AWP
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.99
3.13 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.19%
EV $1.73 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.55%
517 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 517 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $15.37 24.21 HUNT_COIN | 88.7% | 62 | 51.7 | 1.20× |
| AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $1.30 2.04 HUNT_COIN | 7.5% | 52 | 51.7 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 80.0% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN | 3.8% | 403 | 413.6 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$1.993.13 HUNT_COIN$15.3724.21 HUNT_COIN7.73x
AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialMr Blekt0$1.993.13 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.19%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.99 | 87.19% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 20.0%industrial 80.0%best hit —