Pablo Jose

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.02

0.03 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

84.77%

EV $0.02 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.90%

1,960 openings, odds method

Variance

32.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

48.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

66.67%±93.44144 openings

7 days

66.67%±29.291,465 openings

30 days

75.90%±25.331,960 openings

since tracking started

75.90%±25.331,960 openings

-0.5%80.3%161.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	144	66.67%±93.4	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,465	66.67%±29.3	−1.2σ	odds
30d	1,960	75.90%±25.3	−0.7σ	odds
All	1,960	75.90%±25.3	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,961 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 1,000	$3.46 5.45 HUNT_COIN	21.4%	1	2.0	0.51×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	24.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	18.9%	481	470.6	1.02×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	24.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	18.9%	471	470.6	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 26	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	3.1%	80	76.5	1.05×
Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common	24.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	18.9%	470	470.6	1.00×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common	24.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	18.9%	458	470.6	0.97×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CommonB.ff@15acemcgiseng$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x10m

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x1h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Gradeyoloman2003 CASEBATTLES.GG$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x1h

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x1h

P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x1h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x1h

SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.020.03 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.67x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.77%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.02	84.77%	6

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedConsumer Grade 24.1%consumer 27.9%Common 48.0%best hit —