ezwin

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.10

0.16 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $0.09 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.28%

4,760 openings, odds method

Variance

17.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.85%±36.11524 openings

7 days

89.99%±12.444,416 openings

30 days

90.28%±11.984,760 openings

since tracking started

90.28%±11.984,760 openings

42.0%78.8%115.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	524	78.85%±36.1	−0.6σ	odds
7d	4,416	89.99%±12.4	+0.1σ	odds
30d	4,760	90.28%±12.0	+0.1σ	odds
All	4,760	90.28%±12.0	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,760 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$3.43 5.41 HUNT_COIN	37.8%	45	47.6	0.95×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN	23.1%	49	47.6	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$1.50 2.37 HUNT_COIN	16.6%	55	47.6	1.16×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$0.83 1.31 HUNT_COIN	9.1%	46	47.6	0.97×
Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	951	952.0	1.00×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	959	952.0	1.01×
Sticker \| NAF (Gold)sticker	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	950	952.0	1.00×
Sticker \| Virtus.prosticker	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	2.8%	975	952.0	1.02×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	16.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	2.2%	730	761.6	0.96×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.13x35m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.13x35m

AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMomaaa @bandit$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN$3.435.41 HUNT_COIN33.81x35m

Souvenir Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.13x42m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.13x42m

Souvenir P90 | Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Common$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.13x42m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.10	89.50%	9

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#4b69ff 1.0%Classified 1.0%mil spec 1.0%#8847ff 1.0%Common 40.0%other 40.0%consumer 16.0%best hit —