Test what
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.85
2.91 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.77%
EV $1.66 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.54%
35 openings, odds method
Variance
21.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 35 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $392 618 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 1 in 10,000 | $390 615 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $136 214 HUNT_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $54.65 86.08 HUNT_COIN | 16.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $12.43 19.57 HUNT_COIN | 37.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $8.33 13.12 HUNT_COIN | 25.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 263 | $0.83 1.31 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Sticker | Huajisticker · high | 89.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 7.8% | 32 | 31.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.85 | 89.77% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%epic 0.0%classified 5.0%Restricted 5.0%#8847ff 0.4%high 89.0%best hit —