10%vs90%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.26
8.29 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.41%
EV $4.71 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.20%
81 openings, odds method
Variance
12.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 81 openings and 8.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knifeknife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $566 891 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $556 875 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 10,000 | $550 866 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 1 in 5,000 | $219 345 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $171 270 HUNT_COIN | 18.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 10.0% | $35.70 56.22 HUNT_COIN | 75.8% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 222 | $12.92 20.35 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 89.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 73 | 72.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Nopejustbot$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$35.7056.22 HUNT_COIN6.78x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Nopejustbot$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$35.7056.22 HUNT_COIN6.78x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.268.29 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.41%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.26 | 89.41% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%classified 0.0%other 0.0%#d32ee6 10.0%Ancient 0.5%Consumer Grade 89.0%best hit —