Green Chaos 25%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.31
3.64 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $2.02 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.15%
89 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 89 openings and 13.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 89 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue | 1 in 20 | $19.91 31.36 HUNT_COIN | 49.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $5.25 8.27 HUNT_COIN | 26.0% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× |
| Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $3.61 5.69 HUNT_COIN | 17.9% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare | 25.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN | 2.8% | 25 | 22.3 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Dragonsticker · Rare | 50.0% | $0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 46 | 44.5 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.31 | 87.40% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedblue 5.0%industrial 10.0%restricted 10.0%Rare 75.0%best hit —