Usp 15%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.35
5.27 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.41%
EV $2.92 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.47%
106 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $22.22 35 HUNT_COIN | 76.0% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.75× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $4.50 7.09 HUNT_COIN | 7.7% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 15.0% | $2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN | 10.8% | 15 | 15.9 | 0.94× |
| USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 35.0% | $0.36 0.57 HUNT_COIN | 4.3% | 36 | 37.1 | 0.97× |
| USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight | 35.0% | $0.10 0.16 HUNT_COIN | 1.2% | 41 | 37.1 | 1.11× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.355.27 HUNT_COIN$4.507.09 HUNT_COIN1.35x
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$3.355.27 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.03x
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$3.355.27 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.03x
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLightz30cutie$3.355.27 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.03x
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight$3.355.27 HUNT_COIN$0.100.16 HUNT_COIN0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.41%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.35 | 87.41% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%Classified 15.0%mil spec 35.0%blueLight 35.0%best hit —