Snowball 40%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.37
0.59 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.54%
EV $0.33 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.90%
824 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 824 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $1.61 2.53 HUNT_COIN | 24.5% | 47 | 41.2 | 1.14× |
| UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $1.37 2.16 HUNT_COIN | 20.9% | 40 | 41.2 | 0.97× |
| Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $0.85 1.34 HUNT_COIN | 25.9% | 68 | 82.4 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | KEi (Holo)sticker | 20.0% | $0.43 0.68 HUNT_COIN | 26.3% | 156 | 164.8 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | Retro Zeussticker · Rare | 60.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.3% | 513 | 494.4 | 1.04× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.54%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.37 | 87.54% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 10.0%industrial 10.0%other 20.0%Rare 60.0%best hit —