M4A4 10%
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.03
3.19 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.43%
EV $1.77 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.77%
461 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.43% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.14% – 129.39%, 461 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 461 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $14.15 22.29 HUNT_COIN | 79.9% | 62 | 46.1 | 1.34× |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon | 10.0% | $0.97 1.52 HUNT_COIN | 5.4% | 43 | 46.1 | 0.93× |
| M4A4 | Steel Work (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9 | 80.0% | $0.32 0.51 HUNT_COIN | 14.6% | 356 | 368.8 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedMomaaa @bandit$2.033.19 HUNT_COIN$14.1522.29 HUNT_COIN6.99x
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$2.033.19 HUNT_COIN$14.1522.29 HUNT_COIN6.99x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.03 | 87.43% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%other 10.0%#5e98d9 80.0%best hit —