The Keys
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.96
26.71 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.41%
EV $14.82 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.11%
298 openings, sample method
Variance
28.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 298 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 298 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 100 | $806 1,269 HUNT_COIN | 54.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $397 626 HUNT_COIN | 26.8% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $191 301 HUNT_COIN | 12.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| Desert Eagle | Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 100 | $51.39 80.94 HUNT_COIN | 3.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $35.77 56.33 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 285 | 283.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$16.9626.71 HUNT_COIN$8061,269 HUNT_COIN47.50x
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$16.9626.71 HUNT_COIN$8061,269 HUNT_COIN47.50x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerDiabloPhD$16.9626.71 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.41%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $16.96 | 87.41% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 1.0%restricted 2.0%Covert 1.0%rare 1.0%consumer 95.0%best hit $806 (47.50x)