1% snowball
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.46
2.3 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.47%
EV $1.28 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.26%
78 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
41.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 78 openings and 32.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6Momaaa @bandit$1.462.3 HUNT_COIN$1.031.63 HUNT_COIN0.71x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$1.462.3 HUNT_COIN$0.971.53 HUNT_COIN0.67x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$1.462.3 HUNT_COIN$0.971.53 HUNT_COIN0.67x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.47%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.46 | 87.47% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 1.0%#d32ce6 10.0%remarkable 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%blue 10.0%restricted 10.0%milspec 10.0%other 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%violet 19.0%best hit —