1% lucky dih
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.54
2.43 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.13%
EV $1.34 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.89%
631 openings, odds method
Variance
148.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 631 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 646 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $266 419 HUNT_COIN | 99.1% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.93× |
| Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon | 99.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 643 | 642.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weaponTrevor Lett$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weaponTrevor Lett$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.542.43 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.13%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.54 | 87.13% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%other 99.5%best hit $266 (172.6x)