Purple knife
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.79
12.27 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.43%
EV $6.81 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
150.06%
67 openings, odds method
Variance
53.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 67 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $903 1,422 HUNT_COIN | 26.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $679 1,069 HUNT_COIN | 29.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $222 350 HUNT_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $54.17 85.32 HUNT_COIN | 8.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $45.14 71.1 HUNT_COIN | 6.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $9.31 14.67 HUNT_COIN | 6.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.90× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $7.63 12.02 HUNT_COIN | 9.0% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.75× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 84.1% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 58 | 56.3 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$7.7912.27 HUNT_COIN$6791,069 HUNT_COIN87.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerNopejustbot$7.7912.27 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerNopejustbot$7.7912.27 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.79 | 87.43% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.9%classified 1.0%consumer 84.1%best hit $679 (87.14x)