Tryyourluck
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.97
6.26 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.32%
EV $3.47 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
281.72%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
82.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 154
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $957 1,507 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $868 1,367 HUNT_COIN | 25.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $123 194 HUNT_COIN | 17.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $74.51 117 HUNT_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $32.01 50.41 HUNT_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 98.4% | $0.99 1.56 HUNT_COIN | 28.1% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$3.976.26 HUNT_COIN$123194 HUNT_COIN31.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.97 | 87.32% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%classified 0.6%blue 98.4%best hit —