10% max profit
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.61
0.96 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.63%
EV $0.53 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.05%
614 openings, odds method
Variance
23.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 37
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 614 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $109 171 HUNT_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $42.90 67.57 HUNT_COIN | 16.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| AWP | POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 40 | $8.46 13.33 HUNT_COIN | 39.6% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.11× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 44 | $7.56 11.91 HUNT_COIN | 32.3% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× |
| AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $0.62 0.98 HUNT_COIN | 5.8% | 24 | 30.7 | 0.78× |
| Sticker | Retro Zeussticker · Rare | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.1% | 560 | 552.6 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedwavxx123$0.610.96 HUNT_COIN$42.9067.57 HUNT_COIN70.39x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.61 | 87.63% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 2.5%Restricted 2.5%restricted 5.0%Rare 90.0%best hit $42.90 (70.39x)