ak set
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.73
7.45 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $4.13 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.87%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
20.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $351 553 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $247 389 HUNT_COIN | 17.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 167 | $132 208 HUNT_COIN | 19.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $46.88 73.83 HUNT_COIN | 22.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $12.51 19.71 HUNT_COIN | 15.1% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 12.0% | $3.43 5.41 HUNT_COIN | 10.0% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.39× |
| AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight | 20.0% | $0.69 1.09 HUNT_COIN | 3.3% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× |
| AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.30 0.48 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 10 | 12.6 | 0.79× |
| AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9 | 30.0% | $0.15 0.23 HUNT_COIN | 1.1% | 13 | 12.6 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLightDiabloPhD$4.737.45 HUNT_COIN$0.691.09 HUNT_COIN0.15x
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9Leva_alt2$4.737.45 HUNT_COIN$0.150.23 HUNT_COIN0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.73 | 87.38% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.1%covert 0.9%restricted 5.0%#4b69ff 12.0%blueLight 20.0%mil spec 30.0%#5e98d9 30.0%best hit —